Log in
Trader leaderboard/CapeCalibratedPM

CapeCalibratedPM

0x1d2a47b6ec514a0fe26cb07a45cd4702b4647682
PnL (30d)
−$570
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$42
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-7.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
41%
1,847W / 2,661L · 97 open
Win Return (30d)
41%
1,863W / 2,704L · 38 open
Trades (30d)
4,605
across 2,621 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$0.22
avg win $2 · loss $3
Profit Factor
0.84
$2,905 won / $3,474 lost
Reward / Risk
0.98
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$24
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $480 · all-time $200,291

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 41.0% 1,847W/2,661L 2621 $9,123
⚽ Sports 62.9% 117W/69L 172 $255
🏛 Politics 15.0% 3W/17L 9 $30
🎬 Culture 15.8% 3W/16L 6 $16

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

48 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? No 29 0.795 $23.14 $10.04 +76.7%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? Yes 23 0.785 $17.84 $12.84 +256.8%
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 8 0.996 $7.73 $1.16 +17.7%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? No 6 0.986 $5.52 $0.54 +10.8%
Will Gunnar Henderson lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? Yes 498 0.011 $5.48 $-8.56 -61.0%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 7 0.665 $4.89 $0.49 +11.2%
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? No 5 0.925 $4.62 $0.33 +7.6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 5 0.920 $4.16 $0.32 +8.2%
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs next? Yes 20 0.170 $3.39 $-6.19 -64.6%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 10 0.325 $3.17 $-0.98 -23.5%
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No 3 0.835 $2.45 $0.16 +7.0%
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Las Vegas Raiders next? Yes 20 0.117 $2.35 $-1.15 -32.9%
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? No 2 0.946 $2.34 $0.11 +5.1%
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? Yes 60 0.032 $1.92 $-6.48 -77.1%
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? Yes 60 0.030 $1.80 $0.72 +66.7%
Will Kyle Schwarber lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? Yes 60 0.029 $1.71 $-0.75 -30.5%
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 No 2 0.715 $1.62 $-0.40 -19.7%
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Dallas Cowboys next? Yes 244 0.006 $1.46 $0.97 +200.0%
Will Ben Rice lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? Yes 60 0.024 $1.44 $-2.40 -62.5%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 2 0.643 $1.23 $0.05 +4.4%
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? No 14 0.085 $1.21 $-0.79 -39.3%
Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee? No 8 0.132 $1.01 $0.01 +1.2%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 3 0.365 $0.99 $-0.10 -8.7%
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? No 6 0.155 $0.97 $-0.03 -3.1%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 1 0.675 $0.95 $-0.05 -4.9%