PnL (30d)

−$401

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$17

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-48.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

43%

6W / 8L · 23 open

Win Return (30d)

76%

28W / 9L

Trades (30d)

37

across 19 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$44.52

avg win $12 · loss $90

Profit Factor

0.11

$50 won / $450 lost

Reward / Risk

0.14

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$0

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	42.9% 6W/8L	19	$1,146
💵 Economy	100.0% 1W/0L	5	$23
🏛 Politics	100.0% 1W/0L	4	$16

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	634	0.135	$85.59	$9.51	+12.5%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	100	0.075	$7.50	$0.50	+7.1%
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	10	0.600	$6.00	$0.30	+5.3%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	Yes	26	0.148	$3.93	$1.17	+42.6%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	63	0.037	$2.34	$-5.96	-71.8%
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	163	0.013	$2.19	$0.89	+68.7%
Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027?	Yes	50	0.038	$1.93	$-1.57	-45.0%