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Trader leaderboard/Outsmarter

Outsmarter

0x1b6022ae41ad7a0b387a88c17885c754436ca55b
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$21
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$7
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-1.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
0%
0W / 9L · 7 open
Win Return (30d)
44%
7W / 9L
Trades (30d)
16
across 4 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$10.25
· loss $10
Profit Factor
0.00
$0 won / $21 lost
Reward / Risk
need wins & losses
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $5,731 · all-time $742,298

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 68.7% 193W/88L 74 $119,749
🏛 Politics 2 $463
🤖 Tech 0.0% 0W/1L 2 $1,444
💵 Economy 1 $1,045

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

48 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Trump out as President before 2027? No 10,000 0.935 $9,350.00 $150.00 +1.6%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No 7,824 0.940 $7,354.44 $268.13 +3.8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 8,090 0.775 $6,270.12 $149.36 +2.4%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 5,541 0.915 $5,070.22 $141.25 +2.9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 5,000 0.855 $4,275.00 $375.01 +9.6%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 4,021 0.935 $3,759.73 $131.76 +3.6%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 3,496 0.920 $3,215.88 $97.45 +3.1%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 3,002 0.865 $2,596.35 $176.36 +7.3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 3,582 0.650 $2,328.09 $71.63 +3.2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 2,266 0.925 $2,095.77 $62.78 +3.1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? No 1,800 0.964 $1,734.30 $98.30 +6.0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 1,800 0.885 $1,593.01 $9.00 +0.6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 1,801 0.815 $1,467.83 $92.89 +6.8%
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 1,576 0.920 $1,449.75 $36.17 +2.6%
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? No 1,310 0.940 $1,231.30 $43.19 +3.6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? No 1,200 0.988 $1,185.60 $77.60 +7.0%
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? No 1,354 0.875 $1,184.34 $107.52 +10.0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6,049 0.184 $1,116.06 $-165.98 -12.9%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No 1,100 0.958 $1,053.25 $8.59 +0.8%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 32,615 0.030 $994.74 $164.34 +19.8%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 1,059 0.915 $969.11 $46.11 +5.0%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 1,282 0.755 $968.04 $-89.95 -8.5%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No 1,000 0.915 $915.00 $-14.09 -1.5%
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? No 1,000 0.885 $885.00 $-5.00 -0.6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 1,000 0.835 $835.00 $-45.00 -5.1%