PnL (30d)

−$2,206

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$575

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-4.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

50%

1,016W / 1,033L · 3,385 open

Win Return (30d)

51%

2,699W / 2,607L · 128 open

Trades (30d)

5,434

across 639 markets · ~9 per market

EV / position

−$28.65

avg win $56 · loss $141

Profit Factor

0.53

$2,444 won / $4,650 lost

Reward / Risk

0.39

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$21

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	49.6% 1,016W/1,033L	639	$96,871
🏛 Politics	—	208	$11,342
💵 Economy	—	10	$1,161
🎬 Culture	—	3	$45

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?	Yes	923	0.625	$576.83	$-136.31	-19.1%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	2,998	0.135	$404.72	$-69.50	-14.7%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	2,780	0.135	$375.34	$-43.56	-10.4%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	No	773	0.358	$276.74	$-72.34	-20.7%
Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?	Yes	270	0.935	$252.10	$-0.96	-0.4%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	910	0.256	$232.97	$-53.36	-18.6%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?	No	211	0.933	$196.86	$-5.49	-2.7%
Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	No	180	0.910	$163.97	$-0.84	-0.5%
Will RNI win the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	645	0.251	$161.88	$-59.51	-26.9%
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?	No	274	0.590	$161.66	$-40.00	-19.8%
Will PI win the next Moroccan legislative elections?	No	182	0.807	$146.87	$-4.43	-2.9%
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-02 House seat?	No	150	0.925	$138.75	$-0.75	-0.5%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?	Yes	237	0.585	$138.64	$-6.80	-4.7%
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	9,267	0.015	$134.37	$-8.31	-5.8%
Will Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election?	No	197	0.670	$131.91	$1.06	+0.8%
Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	160	0.800	$128.00	$-2.25	-1.7%
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat?	Yes	118	0.940	$110.86	$-0.83	-0.7%
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-07 House seat?	Yes	110	0.958	$105.33	$-2.42	-2.2%
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-03 House seat?	No	111	0.935	$103.78	$-0.55	-0.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-19 House seat?	No	111	0.935	$103.78	$-0.55	-0.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-09 House seat?	Yes	111	0.899	$99.84	$-1.94	-1.9%
Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat?	Yes	111	0.885	$98.23	$-1.67	-1.7%
Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	No	159	0.600	$95.16	$-10.43	-9.9%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	157	0.605	$94.99	$-7.25	-7.1%
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	No	1,111	0.085	$94.44	$-16.66	-15.0%