pdlh
0x169b8e2a1d5a3e9d840a08074a090afa82a730c9
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
−$36
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$18
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-1.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
24%
5W / 16L · 47 open
Win Return (30d)
72%
49W / 19L
Trades (30d)
68
across 8 markets · ~8 per market
EV / position
−$17.98
avg win $9 · loss $44
Profit Factor
0.19
$9 won / $44 lost
Reward / Risk
0.19
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $480 · all-time $207,573
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
772 |
0.935 |
$721.70 |
$22.00 |
+3.1% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
310 |
0.987 |
$305.81 |
$2.63 |
+0.9% |
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? |
Yes |
169 |
0.956 |
$161.84 |
$3.36 |
+2.1% |
| Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? |
Yes |
210 |
0.635 |
$133.29 |
$-3.85 |
-2.8% |
| Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? |
Yes |
436 |
0.305 |
$132.96 |
$-55.40 |
-29.4% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? |
No |
108 |
0.962 |
$103.49 |
$6.10 |
+6.3% |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? |
No |
90 |
0.905 |
$81.45 |
$0.45 |
+0.6% |
| Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.210 |
$4.20 |
$-4.40 |
-51.2% |