PnL (30d)

−$2

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$39

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

78%

18W / 5L · 52 open

Win Return (30d)

64%

48W / 27L

Trades (30d)

75

across 22 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$0.23

avg win $1 · loss $3

Profit Factor

0.77

$6 won / $8 lost

Reward / Risk

0.46

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$0

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	78.3% 18W/5L	22	$1,981
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/1L	4	$220

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	700	0.615	$430.50	$-101.50	-19.1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	700	0.225	$157.49	$-31.59	-16.7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	No	100	0.963	$96.25	$5.25	+5.8%
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	570	0.165	$94.05	$-104.90	-52.7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	100	0.905	$90.50	$3.50	+4.0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	218	0.350	$76.43	$-12.19	-13.8%
Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	200	0.294	$58.80	$-33.20	-36.1%
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	120	0.065	$7.80	$-3.20	-29.1%