PnL (30d)

−$40

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$5

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-8.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

55%

17W / 14L · 3 open

Win Return (30d)

50%

17W / 17L

Trades (30d)

34

across 5 markets · ~7 per market

EV / position

−$9.97

avg win $37 · loss $57

Profit Factor

0.65

$74 won / $113 lost

Reward / Risk

0.65

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$0

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	32.4% 233W/486L	305	$17,821
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/13L	11	$930
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/13L	9	$825
🤖 Tech	—	2	$105
🎬 Culture	—	2	$105
⚽ Sports	—	1	$2
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/1L	1	$181

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	232	0.610	$141.52	$10.65	+8.1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	153	0.800	$122.22	$47.22	+63.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	Yes	148	0.605	$89.44	$16.71	+23.0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	79	1.000	$78.60	$18.60	+31.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	76	0.875	$66.30	$16.29	+32.6%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	50	0.999	$49.95	$9.95	+24.9%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600B and $700B on August 31?	Yes	160	0.290	$46.48	$-38.52	-45.3%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	55	0.815	$44.72	$14.72	+49.1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?	No	66	0.640	$41.97	$1.97	+4.9%
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $100 in August?	Yes	53	0.700	$37.33	$2.33	+6.7%
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	84	0.380	$31.91	$-2.09	-6.2%
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $85 in August?	Yes	129	0.215	$27.72	$-19.78	-41.6%
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $90 in August?	Yes	80	0.275	$22.00	$-16.70	-43.2%
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $80 in August?	Yes	94	0.155	$14.58	$-25.02	-63.2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?	No	35	0.370	$12.95	$-0.25	-1.9%
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $95 in August?	No	28	0.410	$11.48	$-7.28	-38.8%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600B on August 31?	Yes	65	0.120	$7.82	$-12.18	-60.9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	36	0.011	$0.37	$-4.62	-92.5%
Will Vinicius Junior join Al-Hilal?	Yes	74	0.003	$0.22	$-1.78	-88.9%
Will Vinicius Junior join Al-Nassr?	Yes	115	0.002	$0.17	$-0.83	-82.7%