PnL (30d)

−$1,975

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$40

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-17.0%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

32%

224W / 486L · 80 open

Win Return (30d)

32%

256W / 534L

Trades (30d)

790

across 305 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$7.00

avg win $36 · loss $16

Profit Factor

0.47

$1,779 won / $3,754 lost

Reward / Risk

2.20

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$372

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	31.5% 224W/486L	305	$17,821
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/20L	13	$1,064
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/20L	11	$959
🤖 Tech	—	2	$105
🎬 Culture	—	2	$105
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/2L	1	$241
⚽ Sports	—	1	$2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

19 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	309	0.690	$213.41	$38.92	+22.3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	153	0.805	$122.98	$47.98	+64.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	Yes	148	0.575	$85.01	$12.28	+16.9%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	79	1.000	$78.60	$18.60	+31.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	76	0.880	$66.67	$16.67	+33.3%
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	168	0.395	$66.34	$-1.66	-2.4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	50	0.999	$49.92	$9.92	+24.8%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600B and $700B on August 31?	Yes	160	0.305	$48.88	$-36.12	-42.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	55	0.765	$41.98	$11.98	+39.9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?	No	66	0.635	$41.64	$1.64	+4.1%
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $100 in August?	Yes	53	0.710	$37.87	$2.87	+8.2%
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $95 in August?	No	28	0.480	$13.44	$-5.32	-28.4%
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $90 in August?	Yes	30	0.445	$13.35	$-3.45	-20.5%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600B on August 31?	Yes	65	0.180	$11.73	$-8.27	-41.4%
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $80 in August?	Yes	94	0.120	$11.29	$-28.31	-71.5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?	No	30	0.370	$11.10	$-0.60	-5.1%
Will Vinicius Junior join Al-Hilal?	Yes	74	0.006	$0.48	$-1.52	-75.9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	36	0.013	$0.45	$-4.55	-91.1%
Will Vinicius Junior join Al-Nassr?	Yes	115	0.002	$0.17	$-0.83	-82.7%