conotocaurius
0x1104d937f3635fc20f42d56c2855e72f0ec5002a
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
+$5,048
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$1,030
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+14.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
91%
255W / 26L · 111 open
Win Return (30d)
70%
275W / 117L
Trades (30d)
392
across 17 markets · ~23 per market
EV / position
+$630.96
avg win $883 · loss $125
Profit Factor
21.13
$5,298 won / $251 lost
Reward / Risk
7.04
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $8,033 · all-time $2,956,249
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
No |
12,780 |
0.760 |
$9,712.66 |
$-123.35 |
-1.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
950 |
0.875 |
$831.24 |
$4.75 |
+0.6% |
| Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? |
Yes |
4,356 |
0.135 |
$588.00 |
$-290.11 |
-33.0% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? |
Yes |
16,531 |
0.035 |
$570.33 |
$-993.21 |
-63.5% |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? |
Yes |
1,761 |
0.165 |
$290.49 |
$-994.26 |
-77.4% |
| Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by August 31? |
Yes |
320 |
0.320 |
$102.40 |
$-112.00 |
-52.2% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
Yes |
300 |
0.170 |
$51.00 |
$-6.00 |
-10.5% |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31? |
Yes |
1,290 |
0.021 |
$27.61 |
$-347.09 |
-92.6% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 10% and 20%? |
No |
27 |
0.975 |
$25.85 |
$1.48 |
+6.1% |