PnL (30d)

+$119

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$2

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+168.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

67%

14W / 7L · 6 open

Win Return (30d)

59%

16W / 11L

Trades (30d)

27

across 19 markets · ~1 per market

EV / position

+$7.94

avg win $17 · loss $5

Profit Factor

4.61

$152 won / $33 lost

Reward / Risk

3.07

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$17

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	32.1% 25W/53L	67	$396
🎬 Culture	66.7% 8W/4L	9	$77
🏛 Politics	60.0% 6W/4L	9	$92
₿ Crypto	100.0% 2W/0L	3	$10
💵 Economy	—	2	$12

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	33	0.185	$6.17	$1.17	+23.3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	45	0.135	$6.14	$1.14	+22.7%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	47	0.130	$6.09	$1.09	+21.7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	333	0.013	$4.50	$-2.50	-35.7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	288	0.013	$3.60	$-0.52	-12.6%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	263	0.009	$2.50	$-4.19	-62.7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	66	0.024	$1.54	$-0.91	-37.2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	6	0.185	$1.09	$0.09	+8.8%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	5	0.100	$0.50	$0.10	+25.0%