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Trader leaderboard/stefangod

stefangod

0x101ecc6d030795b4c8166ffffe85c1bad7d5d4da
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$24
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$1
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-9.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
21%
11W / 41L · 42 open
Win Return (30d)
29%
27W / 67L
Trades (30d)
94
across 33 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$2.21
avg win $1 · loss $6
Profit Factor
0.12
$3 won / $28 lost
Reward / Risk
0.10
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$3
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $704 · all-time $185,968

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 60.7% 179W/116L 213 $1,908
🏛 Politics 50.0% 10W/10L 31 $243
💵 Economy 66.7% 2W/1L 11 $80
₿ Crypto 5 $38
⚽ Sports 100.0% 5W/0L 5 $32
🎬 Culture 28.6% 2W/5L 4 $29
🔬 Science 2 $6
🤖 Tech 2 $9
🌤 Weather 1 $2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

140 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 46 0.875 $40.52 $0.80 +2.0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 26 0.905 $23.34 $3.13 +15.5%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39 0.460 $18.01 $2.06 +12.9%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 17 0.865 $14.80 $0.35 +2.4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? No 15 0.973 $14.32 $0.17 +1.2%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 32 0.445 $14.30 $-0.48 -3.3%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 16 0.855 $13.36 $0.42 +3.2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? No 14 0.955 $13.18 $2.96 +29.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 14 0.935 $13.12 $0.36 +2.8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? No 13 0.964 $12.56 $0.98 +8.4%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? No 14 0.895 $12.53 $3.24 +35.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? No 13 0.925 $11.92 $3.99 +50.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 14 0.835 $11.55 $0.04 +0.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? Yes 13 0.870 $11.17 $2.63 +30.8%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 12 0.915 $10.83 $0.18 +1.7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? No 11 0.988 $10.62 $0.94 +9.7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 11 0.974 $10.42 $0.12 +1.1%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? No 10 0.964 $10.04 $1.09 +12.2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 18 0.535 $9.68 $-2.67 -21.6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 20 0.485 $9.54 $-2.66 -21.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 25 0.375 $9.50 $-0.13 -1.3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 10 0.924 $9.23 $0.27 +3.1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 10 0.899 $9.14 $-0.02 -0.2%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 11 0.795 $8.96 $-0.22 -2.4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 10 0.905 $8.89 $0.34 +4.0%