PnL (30d)

−$278

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$41

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-4.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

5%

31W / 563L · 225 open

Win Return (30d)

5%

33W / 611L · 175 open

Trades (30d)

819

across 237 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$1.78

avg win $0 · loss $2

Profit Factor

0.01

$3 won / $281 lost

Reward / Risk

0.15

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$106

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	4.5% 195W/4,126L	1921	$210,936
🌤 Weather	2.0% 4W/192L	72	$4,099
💵 Economy	7.1% 1W/13L	41	$4,789
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/13L	40	$6,026
🎬 Culture	0.0% 0W/9L	29	$5,022
🤖 Tech	0.0% 0W/4L	14	$1,221
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/9L	13	$1,404
⚽ Sports	—	12	$814
🔬 Science	—	1	$293

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

5 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	No	44	0.330	$14.52	$-7.04	-32.7%
Will three people dissent the January Fed decision?	Yes	50	0.235	$11.75	$-7.25	-38.2%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 in August?	No	15	0.065	$0.97	$-2.92	-75.0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 6?	Yes	5	0.085	$0.41	$-0.36	-46.9%
Will Richard Dodson be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	Yes	200	0.001	$0.10	$-11.90	-99.2%