| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
328 |
0.165 |
$54.16 |
$-35.84 |
-39.8% |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? |
Anthropic |
41 |
0.895 |
$36.54 |
$11.29 |
+44.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
26 |
0.930 |
$23.92 |
$5.23 |
+28.0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
49 |
0.350 |
$17.07 |
$-2.93 |
-14.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
44 |
0.385 |
$16.95 |
$-3.15 |
-15.7% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
33 |
0.515 |
$16.89 |
$-3.11 |
-15.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
74 |
0.225 |
$16.67 |
$-3.33 |
-16.7% |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? |
No |
51 |
0.285 |
$14.47 |
$-5.53 |
-27.6% |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? |
Yes |
89 |
0.145 |
$12.91 |
$-7.09 |
-35.4% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
20 |
0.635 |
$12.70 |
$0.54 |
+4.4% |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
74 |
0.170 |
$12.59 |
$-7.41 |
-37.0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
167 |
0.075 |
$12.54 |
$-3.74 |
-23.0% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
12 |
0.997 |
$12.46 |
$0.90 |
+7.8% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
139 |
0.089 |
$12.36 |
$3.01 |
+32.2% |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? |
Yes |
14 |
0.845 |
$12.07 |
$7.07 |
+141.4% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
15 |
0.715 |
$10.72 |
$4.33 |
+67.6% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? |
Yes |
19 |
0.565 |
$10.59 |
$5.59 |
+111.8% |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? |
Yes |
93 |
0.095 |
$8.82 |
$-21.18 |
-70.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
8 |
0.885 |
$7.08 |
$2.83 |
+66.7% |
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
117 |
0.060 |
$7.01 |
$-24.71 |
-77.9% |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? |
No |
8 |
0.875 |
$6.57 |
$-0.04 |
-0.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
6 |
1.000 |
$6.25 |
$1.95 |
+45.3% |
| Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? |
Yes |
144 |
0.043 |
$6.14 |
$-6.86 |
-52.8% |
| Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? |
Yes |
76 |
0.075 |
$5.71 |
$-14.29 |
-71.4% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
18 |
0.278 |
$5.05 |
$0.05 |
+0.9% |