PnL (30d)

+$16

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$3

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+6.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

90%

26W / 3L · 63 open

Win Return (30d)

33%

30W / 62L

Trades (30d)

92

across 8 markets · ~12 per market

EV / position

+$3.13

avg win $6 · loss $1

Profit Factor

9.54

$17 won / $2 lost

Reward / Risk

6.36

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$0

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	76.6% 131W/40L	103	$1,677
🏛 Politics	37.5% 3W/5L	32	$441
💵 Economy	66.7% 4W/2L	8	$270
⚽ Sports	—	5	$27
🤖 Tech	—	2	$24
🎬 Culture	—	1	$8
🌤 Weather	—	1	$3
🔬 Science	—	1	$3

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

38 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	328	0.155	$50.88	$-39.12	-43.5%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	41	0.895	$36.54	$11.29	+44.7%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	No	26	0.955	$24.56	$5.87	+31.4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	49	0.355	$17.32	$-2.68	-13.4%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	33	0.525	$17.21	$-2.79	-13.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	44	0.380	$16.73	$-3.37	-16.8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	74	0.225	$16.67	$-3.33	-16.7%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	No	51	0.290	$14.73	$-5.27	-26.3%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Yes	89	0.145	$12.91	$-7.09	-35.4%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	20	0.635	$12.70	$0.54	+4.4%
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	74	0.170	$12.59	$-7.41	-37.0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	167	0.075	$12.54	$-3.74	-23.0%
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	12	1.000	$12.49	$0.94	+8.1%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	14	0.845	$12.07	$7.07	+141.4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	139	0.086	$11.93	$2.58	+27.6%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	15	0.715	$10.72	$4.33	+67.6%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	19	0.565	$10.59	$5.59	+111.8%
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	93	0.095	$8.82	$-21.18	-70.6%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	8	0.915	$7.32	$3.07	+72.4%
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	Yes	117	0.060	$7.01	$-24.71	-77.9%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	8	0.865	$6.49	$-0.11	-1.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	6	1.000	$6.25	$1.95	+45.3%
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	Yes	144	0.043	$6.14	$-6.86	-52.8%
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?	Yes	76	0.075	$5.71	$-14.29	-71.4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	18	0.278	$5.05	$0.05	+0.9%