PnL (30d)

−$30

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-20.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

31%

119W / 267L · 89 open

Win Return (30d)

38%

176W / 293L · 6 open

Trades (30d)

475

across 99 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

−$0.50

avg win $1 · loss $1

Profit Factor

0.33

$14 won / $44 lost

Reward / Risk

0.46

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$5

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	30.8% 119W/267L	99	$257
🏛 Politics	50.0% 1W/1L	6	$5
🎬 Culture	60.0% 3W/2L	3	$7
⚽ Sports	66.7% 4W/2L	2	$13
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/1L	2	$3
₿ Crypto	—	1	$2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

43 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	97	0.065	$6.33	$-6.04	-48.8%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	Yes	62	0.093	$5.74	$-3.99	-41.0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	74	0.034	$2.51	$-4.07	-61.9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	81	0.028	$2.27	$-7.46	-76.7%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	24	0.060	$1.43	$-3.57	-71.4%
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	104	0.011	$1.09	$-1.72	-61.2%
Felix Protocol FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	28	0.038	$1.05	$-1.47	-58.3%
Will Veneziano Vital do Rêgo win the Governor of Paraíba election?	Yes	95	0.009	$0.91	$-1.11	-55.1%
Obama arrested before 2027?	Yes	24	0.033	$0.79	$0.10	+13.8%
Will Mike Pence be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	59	0.013	$0.74	$0.09	+13.6%
Squid FDV above $50M one day after launch	No	50	0.014	$0.69	$0.20	+40.0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?	Yes	39	0.014	$0.55	$-1.42	-72.0%
OPEC dissolves in 2026?	Yes	10	0.055	$0.54	$-0.45	-45.0%
Will Erin Stewart win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	81	0.005	$0.45	$-0.69	-60.7%
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $512,000 and $518,000 on September 30?	Yes	14	0.032	$0.45	$-0.54	-55.0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	67	0.006	$0.40	$-0.39	-49.4%
Yo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	2	0.196	$0.39	$-0.37	-48.4%
Will New People win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	51	0.007	$0.38	$-0.38	-50.0%
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	4	0.088	$0.36	$-0.09	-20.3%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31?	Yes	16	0.021	$0.35	$-0.14	-28.7%
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 4% and 5%?	Yes	85	0.003	$0.25	$-4.58	-94.7%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	495	0.001	$0.25	$-0.74	-75.0%
Will Sébastien Chenu be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?	Yes	53	0.004	$0.24	$0.03	+12.5%
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	75	0.003	$0.23	$-1.12	-83.3%
Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	Yes	119	0.002	$0.18	$-1.58	-89.8%