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Trader leaderboard/Rafinius

Rafinius

0x06537d3bcfe6fb05840c5f10a49f164f4275febe
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$2
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$3
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+2.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
67%
4W / 2L · 8 open
Win Return (30d)
85%
11W / 2L · 1 open
Trades (30d)
14
across 9 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
+$0.91
avg win $2 · loss $0
Profit Factor
6.69
$2 won / $0 lost
Reward / Risk
6.69
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $322 · all-time $27,387

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 65.8% 50W/26L 78 $854
💵 Economy 100.0% 3W/0L 9 $90
🏛 Politics 100.0% 3W/0L 7 $78
₿ Crypto 5 $40
⚽ Sports 0.0% 0W/1L 1 $7
🤖 Tech 1 $20

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

14 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? No 11 0.955 $10.68 $0.73 +7.3%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes 17 0.625 $10.59 $0.59 +5.9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? No 11 0.972 $10.52 $0.56 +5.6%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 12 0.853 $10.07 $0.07 +0.7%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 37 0.260 $9.67 $-0.04 -0.4%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? Yes 17 0.535 $9.19 $-0.11 -1.2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 9 0.905 $8.34 $-0.05 -0.5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? No 9 0.875 $7.96 $-0.05 -0.6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? No 8 0.984 $7.39 $0.41 +5.8%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? Yes 8 0.950 $7.33 $0.54 +8.0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 8 0.926 $7.20 $0.23 +3.3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? No 7 0.925 $6.91 $0.34 +5.1%
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 18 0.375 $6.79 $0.01 +0.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? Yes 7 0.895 $6.01 $0.10 +1.7%