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Trader leaderboard/Rafinius

Rafinius

0x06537d3bcfe6fb05840c5f10a49f164f4275febe
PnL (30d)
−$26
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$2
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-5.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
66%
50W / 26L · 64 open
Win Return (30d)
57%
76W / 57L · 7 open
Trades (30d)
140
across 78 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$0.64
avg win $1 · loss $3
Profit Factor
0.56
$33 won / $58 lost
Reward / Risk
0.41
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$14
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $315 · all-time $27,380

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 65.8% 50W/26L 78 $854
💵 Economy 100.0% 3W/0L 9 $90
🏛 Politics 100.0% 3W/0L 7 $78
₿ Crypto 5 $40
⚽ Sports 0.0% 0W/1L 1 $7
🤖 Tech 1 $20

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

14 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? No 11 0.956 $10.68 $0.73 +7.4%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes 17 0.625 $10.59 $0.59 +5.9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? No 11 0.971 $10.51 $0.55 +5.5%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 12 0.853 $10.07 $0.07 +0.7%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 37 0.259 $9.62 $-0.09 -1.0%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? Yes 17 0.535 $9.19 $-0.11 -1.2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 9 0.905 $8.34 $-0.05 -0.5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? No 8 0.985 $7.39 $0.41 +5.9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August? No 7 0.986 $7.30 $0.32 +4.6%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? Yes 8 0.945 $7.29 $0.50 +7.4%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 8 0.926 $7.20 $0.23 +3.3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? No 7 0.925 $6.91 $0.34 +5.1%
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 18 0.375 $6.79 $0.01 +0.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? Yes 7 0.895 $6.01 $0.10 +1.7%