PnL (30d)

+$20

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$48

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+0.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

61%

41W / 26L · 49 open

Win Return (30d)

76%

88W / 28L

Trades (30d)

116

across 71 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

+$0.30

avg win $3 · loss $4

Profit Factor

1.21

$116 won / $96 lost

Reward / Risk

0.77

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$8

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	61.2% 41W/26L	71	$8,319
🌤 Weather	100.0% 3W/0L	3	$9
💵 Economy	100.0% 2W/0L	2	$6
🏛 Politics	—	1	$4,230

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

74 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	15,911	0.595	$9,467.21	$-7.57	-0.1%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	19,222	0.405	$7,785.03	$288.33	+3.8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	7,400	0.945	$6,993.05	$628.60	+9.9%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No	4,084	0.885	$3,616.71	$-60.98	-1.7%
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	585	0.290	$169.67	$-286.68	-62.8%
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	108	0.832	$89.46	$-10.54	-10.5%
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	53	0.968	$51.46	$1.46	+2.9%
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	51	0.971	$49.34	$-0.66	-1.3%
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	57	0.696	$39.47	$-10.53	-21.1%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	50	0.775	$39.00	$19.00	+95.0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	34	0.963	$32.58	$2.58	+8.6%
Felix Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	31	0.959	$29.52	$-0.48	-1.6%
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	29	0.900	$26.47	$16.47	+164.7%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	32	0.795	$25.24	$5.24	+26.2%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	37	0.670	$24.63	$-0.37	-1.5%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	32	0.750	$24.04	$-0.96	-3.8%
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	27	0.845	$23.15	$3.15	+15.8%
Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	22	0.950	$21.35	$1.35	+6.7%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	22	0.962	$21.16	$1.16	+5.8%
Pacifica FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	22	0.934	$20.09	$0.09	+0.4%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	25	0.805	$20.04	$0.04	+0.2%
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	21	0.962	$19.96	$-0.04	-0.2%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	22	0.865	$19.44	$-0.56	-2.8%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	21	0.893	$19.10	$-0.90	-4.5%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	22	0.865	$19.08	$4.08	+27.2%