| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
1,525 |
0.815 |
$1,242.72 |
$488.72 |
+64.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
650 |
0.969 |
$629.85 |
$51.35 |
+8.9% |
| Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? |
No |
600 |
0.956 |
$573.53 |
$57.59 |
+11.2% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
585 |
0.935 |
$546.97 |
$70.27 |
+14.7% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
1,050 |
0.515 |
$540.75 |
$-52.84 |
-8.9% |
| Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026? |
No |
594 |
0.890 |
$528.83 |
$84.13 |
+18.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
607 |
0.835 |
$506.73 |
$15.86 |
+3.2% |
| Will Kyler Murray be the Vikings' Week 1 starting QB? |
Yes |
585 |
0.855 |
$500.10 |
$-2.83 |
-0.6% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
No |
550 |
0.870 |
$478.50 |
$110.00 |
+29.9% |
| Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? |
No |
500 |
0.957 |
$478.50 |
$98.50 |
+25.9% |
| Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m? |
No |
485 |
0.945 |
$458.32 |
$89.72 |
+24.3% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
No |
605 |
0.740 |
$447.69 |
$-54.45 |
-10.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
475 |
0.925 |
$439.32 |
$68.87 |
+18.6% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
439 |
0.993 |
$435.22 |
$97.57 |
+28.9% |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
555 |
0.760 |
$421.80 |
$44.40 |
+11.8% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
547 |
0.760 |
$415.84 |
$76.60 |
+22.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
540 |
0.705 |
$380.70 |
$13.50 |
+3.7% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
Yes |
545 |
0.665 |
$362.41 |
$117.17 |
+47.8% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
Yes |
700 |
0.507 |
$355.23 |
$249.38 |
+235.6% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? |
No |
465 |
0.755 |
$351.07 |
$-25.57 |
-6.8% |
| Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30? |
No |
550 |
0.636 |
$349.80 |
$-18.70 |
-5.1% |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? |
No |
515 |
0.625 |
$321.87 |
$69.52 |
+27.6% |
| Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31? |
Yes |
500 |
0.635 |
$317.50 |
$57.50 |
+22.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
800 |
0.380 |
$304.00 |
$128.00 |
+72.7% |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
600 |
0.495 |
$297.00 |
$69.00 |
+30.3% |