| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
1,525 |
0.785 |
$1,197.12 |
$443.13 |
+58.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
650 |
0.966 |
$627.90 |
$49.40 |
+8.5% |
| Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? |
No |
600 |
0.972 |
$582.83 |
$66.89 |
+13.0% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
585 |
0.940 |
$549.89 |
$73.20 |
+15.4% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
1,050 |
0.515 |
$540.75 |
$-52.84 |
-8.9% |
| Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026? |
No |
594 |
0.890 |
$528.83 |
$84.13 |
+18.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
607 |
0.840 |
$509.77 |
$18.90 |
+3.8% |
| Will Kyler Murray be the Vikings' Week 1 starting QB? |
Yes |
585 |
0.850 |
$497.17 |
$-5.76 |
-1.1% |
| Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? |
No |
500 |
0.946 |
$473.00 |
$93.00 |
+24.5% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
No |
550 |
0.850 |
$467.50 |
$99.00 |
+26.9% |
| Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m? |
No |
485 |
0.940 |
$455.90 |
$87.30 |
+23.7% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
No |
605 |
0.740 |
$447.69 |
$-54.45 |
-10.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
475 |
0.930 |
$441.69 |
$71.24 |
+19.2% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
439 |
0.988 |
$433.25 |
$95.60 |
+28.3% |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
555 |
0.770 |
$427.35 |
$49.95 |
+13.2% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
547 |
0.755 |
$413.11 |
$73.87 |
+21.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
540 |
0.695 |
$375.25 |
$8.05 |
+2.2% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
Yes |
545 |
0.660 |
$359.69 |
$114.45 |
+46.7% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
Yes |
700 |
0.510 |
$357.05 |
$251.20 |
+237.3% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? |
No |
465 |
0.760 |
$353.40 |
$-23.25 |
-6.2% |
| Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30? |
No |
550 |
0.636 |
$349.80 |
$-18.70 |
-5.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
800 |
0.385 |
$308.00 |
$132.00 |
+75.0% |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? |
No |
515 |
0.595 |
$306.42 |
$54.07 |
+21.4% |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
600 |
0.495 |
$297.00 |
$69.00 |
+30.3% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.278 |
$277.50 |
$23.50 |
+9.3% |