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ConsensusOfCredibleReporting

0x0275ac8f6793cc3ffe90dc1095330e240622b936
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$30
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$7
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+17.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
40%
87W / 129L · 10 open
Win Return (30d)
40%
91W / 135L
Trades (30d)
226
across 96 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
+$0.32
avg win $5 · loss $2
Profit Factor
1.28
$133 won / $104 lost
Reward / Risk
3.09
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$12
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $6,805 · all-time $553,736

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 44.1% 1,204W/1,525L 1658 $7,366
🏛 Politics 27.3% 6W/16L 60 $233
🎬 Culture 29.3% 12W/29L 40 $148
💵 Economy 55.2% 16W/13L 39 $108
🌤 Weather 45.0% 27W/33L 24 $105
🤖 Tech 70.0% 14W/6L 21 $105
🔬 Science 0.0% 0W/4L 4 $14
⚽ Sports 1 $2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Fox (FOXA) beat quarterly earnings? No 86 0.141 $12.03 $9.46 +368.3%
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? No 15 0.435 $6.68 $3.15 +89.1%
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes 29 0.216 $6.26 $3.98 +174.0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? No 14 0.435 $6.06 $2.58 +74.0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 6? Yes 23 0.260 $5.89 $2.49 +73.3%
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Yes 13 0.440 $5.86 $2.40 +69.2%
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes 20 0.275 $5.52 $2.31 +71.9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? Yes 17 0.300 $5.21 $1.74 +50.0%
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 37 0.141 $5.19 $2.17 +71.8%
Will Donavan McKinney win the MI-13 Democratic primary by less than 4%? Yes 35 0.141 $4.97 $3.21 +181.8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 5? Yes 19 0.255 $4.73 $1.39 +41.7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? No 45 0.105 $4.71 $1.57 +50.0%
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? Yes 63 0.075 $4.71 $1.57 +50.0%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? Yes 18 0.255 $4.59 $1.17 +34.2%
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? No 15 0.295 $4.56 $0.85 +22.9%
Will Lyft (LYFT) Q2 rides be above 265M? Yes 15 0.295 $4.49 $1.14 +34.1%
Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? Yes 18 0.241 $4.37 $0.93 +27.1%
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes 19 0.225 $4.33 $1.06 +32.3%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31? Yes 45 0.095 $4.27 $2.02 +90.0%
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? Yes 17 0.254 $4.25 $0.75 +21.3%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes 24 0.170 $4.16 $0.98 +30.8%
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 15 0.275 $4.09 $0.67 +19.6%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? No 21 0.185 $3.93 $0.74 +23.3%
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? Yes 20 0.195 $3.90 $0.50 +14.7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 6? Yes 46 0.085 $3.90 $0.69 +21.4%