Trader
0x019ca366d008fd0639065596447a485814fde8d2
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$114
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$3
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-5.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
48%
115W / 125L · 16 open
Win Return (30d)
48%
116W / 125L · 15 open
Trades (30d)
256
across 48 markets · ~5 per market
EV / position
−$2.60
avg win $5 · loss $7
Profit Factor
0.42
$82 won / $197 lost
Reward / Risk
0.81
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$115
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $8,311 · all-time $501,016
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 5? |
No |
200 |
0.550 |
$110.00 |
$-14.00 |
-11.3% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? |
No |
242 |
0.345 |
$83.47 |
$-72.87 |
-46.6% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? |
No |
285 |
0.120 |
$34.16 |
$-70.88 |
-67.5% |
| Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? |
No |
66 |
0.421 |
$27.82 |
$16.97 |
+156.3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 5? |
Yes |
71 |
0.270 |
$19.25 |
$-0.71 |
-3.6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET |
Up |
11 |
1.000 |
$11.11 |
$1.11 |
+11.1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 5? |
Yes |
51 |
0.145 |
$7.35 |
$-4.31 |
-37.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 5? |
Yes |
7 |
0.996 |
$6.52 |
$3.38 |
+107.4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET |
Down |
14 |
0.000 |
$0.00 |
$-10.00 |
-100.0% |