| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
3,180 |
0.855 |
$2,718.97 |
$707.60 |
+35.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
2,289 |
0.825 |
$1,888.73 |
$808.00 |
+74.8% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
2,234 |
0.830 |
$1,854.36 |
$552.69 |
+42.5% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
No |
1,692 |
0.984 |
$1,664.93 |
$118.02 |
+7.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2,000 |
0.775 |
$1,549.90 |
$20.00 |
+1.3% |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? |
No |
1,431 |
0.855 |
$1,223.25 |
$7.15 |
+0.6% |
| Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,255 |
0.960 |
$1,205.16 |
$474.23 |
+64.9% |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,332 |
0.805 |
$1,072.04 |
$-24.97 |
-2.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
1,300 |
0.765 |
$994.50 |
$209.50 |
+26.7% |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? |
No |
858 |
0.770 |
$660.34 |
$-4.54 |
-0.7% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? |
Yes |
798 |
0.790 |
$630.68 |
$20.16 |
+3.3% |
| Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? |
No |
419 |
0.940 |
$393.98 |
$5.38 |
+1.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
547 |
0.504 |
$275.73 |
$-156.12 |
-36.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,097 |
0.180 |
$197.44 |
$-321.75 |
-62.0% |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 20, 2026? |
No |
211 |
0.920 |
$193.74 |
$10.53 |
+5.7% |
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? |
No |
180 |
0.957 |
$172.56 |
$2.70 |
+1.6% |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 15, 2026? |
No |
115 |
0.956 |
$110.28 |
$10.96 |
+11.0% |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026? |
No |
116 |
0.925 |
$107.53 |
$10.44 |
+10.8% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
400 |
0.215 |
$86.00 |
$-122.00 |
-58.7% |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 6, 2026? |
No |
56 |
0.915 |
$51.55 |
$4.23 |
+8.9% |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
200 |
0.215 |
$43.00 |
$-17.00 |
-28.3% |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026? |
No |
40 |
0.935 |
$37.40 |
$3.40 |
+10.0% |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 18, 2026? |
No |
36 |
0.920 |
$32.85 |
$2.86 |
+9.5% |
| China ballistic missile launch by December 31? |
Yes |
137 |
0.175 |
$23.99 |
$2.06 |
+9.4% |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 4, 2026? |
No |
40 |
0.500 |
$20.00 |
$-14.40 |
-41.9% |