PnL (30d)

−$63

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$4

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-13.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

55%

29W / 24L · 12 open

Win Return (30d)

54%

35W / 30L

Trades (30d)

65

across 28 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$2.88

avg win $3 · loss $22

Profit Factor

0.41

$45 won / $108 lost

Reward / Risk

0.12

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$10

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	68.3% 84W/39L	57	$1,113
🏛 Politics	80.0% 8W/2L	12	$194
🎬 Culture	80.0% 8W/2L	12	$194

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	51	0.994	$50.80	$5.81	+12.9%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	33	0.998	$33.10	$3.10	+10.3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	33	0.918	$29.89	$-0.10	-0.3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	18	0.982	$17.31	$2.32	+15.5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	12	0.981	$11.65	$0.59	+5.3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	12	0.821	$9.63	$-0.86	-8.2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	310	0.019	$5.88	$-3.31	-36.0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	8	0.585	$4.79	$-1.02	-17.6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	125	0.018	$2.31	$-5.94	-72.0%