| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? |
No |
44,045 |
0.963 |
$42,393.07 |
$4,775.38 |
+12.7% |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? |
No |
13,000 |
0.945 |
$12,284.77 |
$3,444.95 |
+39.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
12,112 |
0.966 |
$11,700.19 |
$557.15 |
+5.0% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
12,500 |
0.915 |
$11,437.50 |
$437.50 |
+4.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
11,132 |
0.930 |
$10,352.76 |
$333.96 |
+3.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
8,000 |
0.976 |
$7,804.00 |
$172.00 |
+2.3% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
No |
7,521 |
0.963 |
$7,238.96 |
$169.22 |
+2.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
10,206 |
0.625 |
$6,378.74 |
$5.43 |
+0.1% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
3,552 |
0.979 |
$3,475.46 |
$349.85 |
+11.2% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
3,084 |
0.994 |
$3,065.29 |
$197.36 |
+6.9% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
No |
3,200 |
0.940 |
$3,008.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.991 |
$2,973.00 |
$2,883.00 |
+3203.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
2,500 |
0.968 |
$2,418.75 |
$18.75 |
+0.8% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,790 |
0.665 |
$1,855.34 |
$-46.72 |
-2.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
987 |
0.574 |
$566.53 |
$-25.66 |
-4.3% |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
444 |
0.787 |
$349.64 |
$163.05 |
+87.4% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
350 |
0.895 |
$313.25 |
$38.31 |
+13.9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
366 |
0.835 |
$305.64 |
$12.01 |
+4.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.426 |
$127.80 |
$-13.20 |
-9.4% |
| Will New Jersey 5s win the Major League Pickleball End of Season Championship? |
Yes |
100 |
0.338 |
$33.75 |
$-1.75 |
-4.9% |
| Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? |
Yes |
314 |
0.039 |
$12.25 |
$-216.04 |
-94.6% |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? |
No |
180 |
0.039 |
$7.02 |
$-133.38 |
-95.0% |