PnL (30d)

−$19

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$8

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

—

no reliable basis

Win Resolved (30d)

67%

2W / 1L · 1 open

Win Return (30d)

50%

2W / 2L

Trades (30d)

4

across 4 markets · ~1 per market

EV / position

−$6.27

avg win $69 · loss $157

Profit Factor

0.88

$139 won / $157 lost

Reward / Risk

0.44

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	66.7% 2W/1L	4	$218
💵 Economy	—	1	$36
🤖 Tech	—	1	$36

Open positions

99 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	283	0.855	$241.76	$41.76	+20.9%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	205	0.830	$170.29	$20.29	+13.5%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	130	0.968	$125.73	$25.73	+25.7%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	142	0.885	$125.65	$25.65	+25.6%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	No	135	0.905	$121.78	$21.78	+21.8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	134	0.905	$121.13	$14.13	+13.2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	123	0.945	$116.58	$15.80	+15.7%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	136	0.840	$113.98	$33.99	+42.5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	119	0.935	$111.08	$23.44	+26.7%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	115	0.955	$109.77	$9.77	+9.8%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	119	0.920	$109.30	$9.50	+9.5%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	116	0.915	$106.40	$6.40	+6.4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	116	0.905	$105.02	$15.02	+16.7%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	117	0.875	$102.66	$2.93	+2.9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	118	0.835	$98.24	$-1.76	-1.8%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	94	0.945	$89.28	$9.28	+11.6%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	102	0.823	$83.65	$43.65	+109.1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	93	0.850	$78.75	$28.75	+57.5%
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	79	0.949	$74.76	$4.76	+6.8%
Will BP be acquired before 2027?	No	74	0.970	$71.44	$11.44	+19.1%
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	No	74	0.953	$70.78	$20.78	+41.6%
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	77	0.905	$69.70	$9.50	+15.8%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	79	0.820	$64.43	$9.43	+17.1%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	81	0.715	$57.89	$7.89	+15.8%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	62	0.936	$57.85	$7.85	+15.7%