| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? |
No |
2,577 |
0.750 |
$1,932.99 |
$798.98 |
+70.5% |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? |
No |
1,650 |
0.875 |
$1,443.75 |
$130.75 |
+10.0% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,805 |
0.750 |
$1,353.49 |
$-124.19 |
-8.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
1,218 |
0.835 |
$1,017.03 |
$48.28 |
+5.0% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? |
No |
807 |
0.830 |
$669.99 |
$24.85 |
+3.9% |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? |
No |
901 |
0.680 |
$612.59 |
$-33.20 |
-5.1% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
Yes |
720 |
0.820 |
$590.36 |
$155.09 |
+35.6% |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? |
No |
605 |
0.860 |
$520.30 |
$-6.05 |
-1.1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
550 |
0.935 |
$514.25 |
$143.75 |
+38.8% |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? |
No |
554 |
0.900 |
$498.15 |
$66.42 |
+15.4% |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.945 |
$472.51 |
$44.64 |
+10.4% |
| Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? |
No |
500 |
0.715 |
$357.49 |
$42.50 |
+13.5% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
No |
350 |
0.940 |
$329.00 |
$24.00 |
+7.9% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? |
No |
419 |
0.765 |
$320.83 |
$-5.02 |
-1.5% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
423 |
0.715 |
$302.23 |
$20.93 |
+7.4% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.915 |
$274.50 |
$6.50 |
+2.4% |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? |
No |
358 |
0.725 |
$259.31 |
$-19.24 |
-6.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
250 |
0.976 |
$243.88 |
$38.38 |
+18.7% |
| Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? |
Yes |
250 |
0.940 |
$235.00 |
$6.00 |
+2.6% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? |
No |
256 |
0.905 |
$231.68 |
$-1.28 |
-0.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
228 |
0.945 |
$215.64 |
$39.93 |
+22.7% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
220 |
0.979 |
$215.27 |
$-0.11 |
-0.1% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
247 |
0.835 |
$206.04 |
$14.77 |
+7.7% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
208 |
0.955 |
$198.67 |
$3.12 |
+1.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.963 |
$192.50 |
$38.50 |
+25.0% |