| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
566 |
0.870 |
$492.63 |
$148.42 |
+43.1% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
466 |
0.835 |
$388.73 |
$102.05 |
+35.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
329 |
0.825 |
$271.14 |
$92.72 |
+52.0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
No |
276 |
0.775 |
$213.64 |
$1.15 |
+0.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
271 |
0.785 |
$212.52 |
$49.88 |
+30.7% |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? |
No |
215 |
0.855 |
$183.48 |
$1.07 |
+0.6% |
| Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? |
No |
180 |
0.960 |
$173.19 |
$7.22 |
+4.3% |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? |
No |
205 |
0.810 |
$166.26 |
$-3.75 |
-2.2% |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? |
No |
212 |
0.770 |
$163.58 |
$-1.78 |
-1.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
No |
160 |
0.855 |
$136.80 |
$16.80 |
+14.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
160 |
0.840 |
$134.40 |
$-2.58 |
-1.9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
160 |
0.835 |
$133.59 |
$4.00 |
+3.1% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
181 |
0.645 |
$116.59 |
$12.59 |
+12.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
116 |
1.000 |
$115.93 |
$24.73 |
+27.1% |
| Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? |
No |
120 |
0.964 |
$115.61 |
$18.42 |
+19.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
186 |
0.615 |
$114.10 |
$7.38 |
+6.9% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
303 |
0.350 |
$106.02 |
$-1.04 |
-1.0% |
| Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026? |
No |
120 |
0.825 |
$99.00 |
$3.00 |
+3.1% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? |
Yes |
120 |
0.790 |
$94.59 |
$2.42 |
+2.6% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
240 |
0.375 |
$90.15 |
$8.41 |
+10.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
103 |
0.785 |
$80.54 |
$29.98 |
+59.3% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
108 |
0.745 |
$80.50 |
$8.29 |
+11.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
200 |
0.385 |
$77.00 |
$1.00 |
+1.3% |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? |
Yes |
167 |
0.460 |
$76.75 |
$2.41 |
+3.2% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? |
No |
80 |
0.925 |
$74.00 |
$0.40 |
+0.5% |