| Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? |
No |
74 |
0.975 |
$72.50 |
$21.91 |
+43.3% |
| Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026? |
No |
70 |
0.945 |
$65.91 |
$24.06 |
+57.5% |
| Will Nick Pappas win the 2026 Denton County Judge election? |
No |
70 |
0.930 |
$64.87 |
$23.02 |
+55.0% |
| Will Maine have the closest Senate race in 2026? |
No |
70 |
0.835 |
$58.24 |
$16.39 |
+39.2% |
| Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be less than 2.0? |
No |
56 |
0.978 |
$54.79 |
$22.86 |
+71.6% |
| Will the median home value in the DC Metro be at least $542,000 on September 30? |
No |
59 |
0.925 |
$54.20 |
$19.04 |
+54.2% |
| Will Virginia have the closest Senate race in 2026? |
No |
55 |
0.980 |
$53.61 |
$20.77 |
+63.2% |
| Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%? |
No |
53 |
0.829 |
$43.83 |
$13.67 |
+45.4% |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
45 |
0.905 |
$40.98 |
$15.62 |
+61.6% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
53 |
0.755 |
$40.02 |
$5.56 |
+16.2% |
| Will Waymo operate in 32 or more cities on December 31 2026? |
No |
35 |
0.935 |
$32.87 |
$11.78 |
+55.8% |
| Will Waymo operate in 28-31 cities on December 31 2026? |
No |
32 |
0.882 |
$28.20 |
$9.03 |
+47.1% |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? |
Yes |
52 |
0.535 |
$27.81 |
$-9.03 |
-24.5% |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? |
No |
25 |
0.945 |
$23.62 |
$8.38 |
+54.9% |
| Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? |
No |
25 |
0.880 |
$21.84 |
$7.45 |
+51.7% |
| Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting? |
No |
23 |
0.902 |
$20.43 |
$4.58 |
+28.9% |
| Will Shehbaz Sharif be TIME Person of the Year 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.935 |
$18.70 |
$7.70 |
+70.0% |
| Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be TIME Person of the Year 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.934 |
$18.69 |
$7.09 |
+61.1% |
| Did another cause lead to the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion? |
No |
25 |
0.721 |
$18.01 |
$3.01 |
+20.1% |
| Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $536,000 and $542,000 on September 30? |
No |
24 |
0.615 |
$14.82 |
$0.36 |
+2.5% |
| Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%? |
No |
25 |
0.580 |
$14.50 |
$0.25 |
+1.8% |
| Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? |
No |
24 |
0.535 |
$13.05 |
$-1.34 |
-9.3% |
| Will Poland win Junior Eurovision 2026? |
No |
11 |
0.935 |
$9.97 |
$2.93 |
+41.7% |
| Will Donald Trump endorse Donald Trump Jr. in the 2028 US Presidential election? |
Yes |
25 |
0.070 |
$1.75 |
$0.50 |
+40.0% |
| Will Tarsier Pharma not IPO before September 2026? |
No |
104 |
0.016 |
$1.66 |
$-65.94 |
-97.5% |