| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? |
No |
3,568 |
0.970 |
$3,458.87 |
$91.35 |
+2.7% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
2,911 |
0.850 |
$2,473.03 |
$89.93 |
+3.8% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
1,317 |
0.977 |
$1,286.63 |
$54.74 |
+4.4% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
1,354 |
0.927 |
$1,255.85 |
$28.27 |
+2.3% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
1,200 |
0.675 |
$810.00 |
$65.42 |
+8.8% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.870 |
$435.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
325 |
0.962 |
$312.65 |
$36.40 |
+13.2% |
| Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
No |
400 |
0.635 |
$254.00 |
$-24.00 |
-8.6% |
| Clavicular sentenced to prison? |
No |
288 |
0.870 |
$250.53 |
$7.28 |
+3.0% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
311 |
0.786 |
$244.62 |
$17.34 |
+7.6% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
500 |
0.455 |
$227.50 |
$-10.42 |
-4.4% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
248 |
0.830 |
$205.73 |
$63.36 |
+44.5% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
303 |
0.655 |
$198.75 |
$65.24 |
+48.9% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
250 |
0.625 |
$156.24 |
$-7.75 |
-4.7% |
| Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
Yes |
330 |
0.430 |
$141.95 |
$9.67 |
+7.3% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
135 |
0.935 |
$126.22 |
$20.69 |
+19.6% |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? |
Yes |
400 |
0.285 |
$113.96 |
$-29.04 |
-20.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House |
No |
125 |
0.875 |
$109.38 |
$12.38 |
+12.8% |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? |
No |
100 |
0.875 |
$87.51 |
$0.50 |
+0.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
100 |
0.835 |
$83.50 |
$-3.00 |
-3.5% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
500 |
0.145 |
$72.50 |
$-2.50 |
-3.3% |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
100 |
0.715 |
$71.50 |
$-0.50 |
-0.7% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
100 |
0.635 |
$63.53 |
$7.34 |
+13.1% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
50 |
0.823 |
$41.15 |
$14.15 |
+52.4% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
150 |
0.261 |
$39.08 |
$-3.97 |
-9.2% |