| Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
328 |
0.993 |
$325.61 |
$3.36 |
+1.0% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
319 |
0.987 |
$315.18 |
$2.29 |
+0.7% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
300 |
0.987 |
$295.87 |
$10.34 |
+3.6% |
| Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? |
No |
317 |
0.888 |
$281.76 |
$4.75 |
+1.7% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
230 |
0.962 |
$221.32 |
$28.81 |
+15.0% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
207 |
0.983 |
$203.95 |
$-0.15 |
-0.1% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
150 |
0.977 |
$146.53 |
$3.10 |
+2.2% |
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? |
No |
158 |
0.903 |
$142.94 |
$8.95 |
+6.7% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
No |
95 |
0.945 |
$89.69 |
$1.42 |
+1.6% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? |
No |
100 |
0.885 |
$88.50 |
$-0.50 |
-0.6% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
72 |
0.997 |
$71.84 |
$0.70 |
+1.0% |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? |
No |
74 |
0.945 |
$69.82 |
$3.37 |
+5.1% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
63 |
0.955 |
$60.47 |
$0.19 |
+0.3% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
53 |
0.935 |
$49.63 |
$-0.27 |
-0.5% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? |
No |
50 |
0.986 |
$49.27 |
$1.27 |
+2.7% |
| Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027? |
No |
54 |
0.915 |
$49.22 |
$1.63 |
+3.4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
48 |
0.981 |
$47.23 |
$3.37 |
+7.7% |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.915 |
$45.77 |
$1.77 |
+4.0% |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? |
No |
50 |
0.915 |
$45.75 |
$2.25 |
+5.2% |
| Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? |
No |
43 |
0.978 |
$41.89 |
$1.61 |
+4.0% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
25 |
0.976 |
$24.39 |
$-0.13 |
-0.5% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? |
No |
25 |
0.725 |
$18.18 |
$-0.13 |
-0.7% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? |
No |
90 |
0.195 |
$17.50 |
$-57.89 |
-76.8% |
| Jonathan Majors as Kang? |
No |
14 |
0.932 |
$13.35 |
$0.34 |
+2.6% |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? |
No |
14 |
0.907 |
$12.54 |
$0.32 |
+2.6% |