PnL (30d)

−$20

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$10

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-15.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

4%

1W / 24L · 34 open

Win Return (30d)

14%

8W / 50L · 1 open

Trades (30d)

59

across 25 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$2.18

avg win $3 · loss $3

Profit Factor

0.14

$3 won / $23 lost

Reward / Risk

1.14

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$11

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	4.0% 1W/24L	25	$253
🏛 Politics	—	4	$9
🤖 Tech	0.0% 0W/3L	2	$12
💵 Economy	—	1	$4

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	40	0.180	$7.20	$3.80	+111.8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	10	0.515	$5.15	$1.15	+28.7%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	10	0.365	$3.65	$-0.05	-1.4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	5	0.685	$3.42	$0.27	+8.7%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	5	0.655	$3.27	$-0.32	-9.0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	10	0.215	$2.15	$0.55	+34.4%
OKX IPO in 2026?	Yes	20	0.075	$1.53	$-4.37	-74.0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	10	0.095	$0.95	$-0.25	-20.8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	10	0.075	$0.76	$0.35	+88.2%
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	10	0.049	$0.48	$-0.21	-30.7%
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	10	0.043	$0.43	$-1.02	-70.1%