| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
141,290 |
0.935 |
$132,106.54 |
$9,107.44 |
+7.4% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
95,500 |
0.930 |
$88,863.06 |
$-67.23 |
-0.1% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
81,908 |
0.915 |
$74,945.40 |
$1,318.06 |
+1.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
51,054 |
0.835 |
$42,630.46 |
$2,337.73 |
+5.8% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
41,057 |
0.980 |
$40,236.15 |
$2,948.61 |
+7.9% |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? |
No |
24,678 |
0.976 |
$24,085.70 |
$167.79 |
+0.7% |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? |
Yes |
21,371 |
0.974 |
$20,815.09 |
$-30.26 |
-0.1% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
15,050 |
0.966 |
$14,538.59 |
$692.31 |
+5.0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
13,256 |
0.989 |
$13,103.85 |
$324.78 |
+2.5% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
12,328 |
0.987 |
$12,161.37 |
$556.02 |
+4.8% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
12,449 |
0.865 |
$10,768.66 |
$62.25 |
+0.6% |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? |
No |
11,100 |
0.945 |
$10,489.50 |
$277.50 |
+2.7% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
10,364 |
0.997 |
$10,327.81 |
$150.28 |
+1.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
8,602 |
0.855 |
$7,354.91 |
$1,629.60 |
+28.5% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
5,937 |
0.930 |
$5,521.27 |
$247.97 |
+4.7% |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? |
No |
2,700 |
0.983 |
$2,652.74 |
$114.75 |
+4.5% |
| Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? |
No |
2,151 |
0.964 |
$2,073.65 |
$32.55 |
+1.6% |
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? |
Yes |
424 |
0.983 |
$416.89 |
$1.06 |
+0.3% |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? |
No |
50 |
0.982 |
$49.08 |
$0.07 |
+0.2% |
| Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
50 |
0.875 |
$43.79 |
$0.73 |
+1.7% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? |
Yes |
12 |
0.982 |
$11.31 |
$0.02 |
+0.2% |