| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-10 House seat? |
No |
60 |
0.875 |
$52.50 |
$-0.90 |
-1.7% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-16 House seat? |
No |
50 |
0.785 |
$39.52 |
$-0.76 |
-1.9% |
| Will Boris Vallaud win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? |
No |
60 |
0.635 |
$38.10 |
$-1.50 |
-3.8% |
| Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31? |
Yes |
60 |
0.565 |
$33.89 |
$-5.71 |
-14.4% |
| Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? |
No |
50 |
0.675 |
$33.75 |
$-1.75 |
-4.9% |
| Will Russell Fry place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? |
No |
35 |
0.710 |
$24.85 |
$-0.70 |
-2.7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
53 |
0.405 |
$21.38 |
$-3.43 |
-13.8% |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? |
No |
56 |
0.320 |
$17.82 |
$-13.92 |
-43.9% |
| Will James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary? |
No |
20 |
0.625 |
$12.34 |
$-1.68 |
-12.0% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? |
No |
55 |
0.220 |
$12.10 |
$-2.20 |
-15.4% |
| Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? |
Yes |
60 |
0.190 |
$11.40 |
$-14.40 |
-55.8% |
| Will the Republican Party win the NC-07 House seat? |
No |
60 |
0.190 |
$11.40 |
$-0.60 |
-5.0% |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30? |
Yes |
50 |
0.225 |
$11.25 |
$-11.25 |
-50.0% |
| Will the Bayeux Tapestry be back in France by December 31, 2027? |
No |
54 |
0.155 |
$8.37 |
$-1.35 |
-13.9% |
| Will Bradley Barcola stay at Paris Saint-Germain? |
Yes |
60 |
0.126 |
$7.56 |
$-15.84 |
-67.7% |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in August? |
Yes |
11 |
0.680 |
$7.34 |
$-1.19 |
-13.9% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in August? |
No |
60 |
0.115 |
$6.90 |
$-3.90 |
-36.1% |
| Will Harry Styles perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? |
Yes |
60 |
0.086 |
$5.13 |
$-21.87 |
-81.0% |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%? |
Yes |
50 |
0.065 |
$3.25 |
$-8.75 |
-72.9% |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.157 |
$3.14 |
$-3.48 |
-52.6% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? |
No |
50 |
0.060 |
$3.00 |
$-13.00 |
-81.2% |
| Will Emiliano Martinez join Al-Hilal? |
Yes |
50 |
0.056 |
$2.80 |
$-12.85 |
-82.1% |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
60 |
0.029 |
$1.74 |
$-14.46 |
-89.3% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
19 |
0.018 |
$0.34 |
$-1.40 |
-80.4% |