| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? |
No |
8,150 |
0.860 |
$7,009.00 |
$698.05 |
+11.1% |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? |
No |
2,500 |
0.905 |
$2,262.50 |
$309.38 |
+15.8% |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? |
No |
1,623 |
0.855 |
$1,387.59 |
$219.27 |
+18.8% |
| Will Trump deport 300-400k people? |
No |
1,114 |
0.845 |
$941.33 |
$192.20 |
+25.7% |
| Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? |
Yes |
1,256 |
0.380 |
$477.28 |
$-173.60 |
-26.7% |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? |
No |
300 |
0.870 |
$261.00 |
$38.60 |
+17.4% |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2,047 |
0.105 |
$214.94 |
$-148.56 |
-40.9% |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? |
No |
240 |
0.810 |
$194.40 |
$138.34 |
+246.7% |
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? |
Yes |
657 |
0.265 |
$174.07 |
$-3.09 |
-1.7% |
| Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? |
No |
203 |
0.830 |
$168.48 |
$16.74 |
+11.0% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? |
Yes |
1,737 |
0.096 |
$166.75 |
$-297.69 |
-64.1% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? |
No |
167 |
0.933 |
$155.81 |
$5.56 |
+3.7% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
Yes |
160 |
0.940 |
$150.32 |
$146.96 |
+4373.8% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
303 |
0.365 |
$110.61 |
$57.47 |
+108.1% |
| Stripe IPO before 2027? |
No |
105 |
0.991 |
$104.00 |
$15.25 |
+17.2% |
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? |
Yes |
7,460 |
0.011 |
$78.33 |
$-491.26 |
-86.2% |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? |
No |
60 |
0.915 |
$54.90 |
$5.70 |
+11.6% |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
463 |
0.115 |
$53.24 |
$-6.64 |
-11.1% |
| Will Justin Bieber release an album in 2026? |
Yes |
125 |
0.405 |
$50.62 |
$-38.92 |
-43.5% |
| Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.70% (LOW) by December 31, 2026? |
No |
60 |
0.835 |
$50.10 |
$6.66 |
+15.3% |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
69 |
0.700 |
$48.22 |
$0.94 |
+2.0% |
| Another US debt downgrade before 2027? |
Yes |
304 |
0.135 |
$41.04 |
$-43.57 |
-51.5% |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
Yes |
315 |
0.115 |
$36.25 |
$-50.68 |
-58.3% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? |
Yes |
135 |
0.160 |
$21.60 |
$-20.10 |
-48.2% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? |
No |
21 |
0.904 |
$18.79 |
$10.11 |
+116.3% |