| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2,418 |
0.915 |
$2,212.54 |
$60.95 |
+2.8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
3,267 |
0.675 |
$2,205.11 |
$261.12 |
+13.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
1,400 |
0.835 |
$1,169.00 |
$161.00 |
+16.0% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
1,000 |
0.992 |
$991.98 |
$6.09 |
+0.6% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.992 |
$991.50 |
$26.90 |
+2.8% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
1,000 |
0.987 |
$986.50 |
$52.00 |
+5.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,000 |
0.963 |
$963.00 |
$33.00 |
+3.5% |
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.945 |
$945.00 |
$45.00 |
+5.0% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
1,000 |
0.665 |
$664.98 |
$-73.99 |
-10.0% |
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? |
No |
678 |
0.903 |
$612.63 |
$5.77 |
+1.0% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
800 |
0.715 |
$571.99 |
$46.00 |
+8.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
600 |
0.805 |
$483.00 |
$149.25 |
+44.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
500 |
0.950 |
$475.00 |
$33.00 |
+7.5% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.905 |
$452.51 |
$132.50 |
+41.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
700 |
0.625 |
$437.50 |
$32.50 |
+8.0% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
500 |
0.865 |
$432.50 |
$12.50 |
+3.0% |
| Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? |
No |
500 |
0.865 |
$432.50 |
$2.50 |
+0.6% |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
441 |
0.967 |
$426.73 |
$33.64 |
+8.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
500 |
0.845 |
$422.50 |
$-22.50 |
-5.1% |
| Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? |
No |
400 |
0.964 |
$385.59 |
$68.10 |
+21.4% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
400 |
0.940 |
$375.99 |
$42.00 |
+12.6% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31? |
No |
400 |
0.925 |
$370.00 |
$4.00 |
+1.1% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.675 |
$337.50 |
$2.50 |
+0.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.675 |
$337.49 |
$115.50 |
+52.0% |
| Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31? |
No |
311 |
0.960 |
$298.18 |
$-1.82 |
-0.6% |