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Trader leaderboard/CosmicCedar

CosmicCedar

0xdacf9f8d0341fa3770fae5c7ccd9dcfed23e3c74
Scoped to Sports — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$2,930
Sports · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$293
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+4.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
81%
324W / 75L · 51 open
Win Return (30d)
82%
362W / 82L · 6 open
Trades (30d)
450
across 233 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
+$14.15
avg win $18 · loss $21
Profit Factor
7.59
$3,374 won / $445 lost
Reward / Risk
0.86
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $108,983

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 76.4% 986W/305L 669 $302,083
🎬 Culture 77.4% 65W/19L 46 $17,971
⚽ Sports 100.0% 29W/0L 35 $11,177
🏛 Politics 67.9% 36W/17L 24 $11,230
🤖 Tech 100.0% 19W/0L 15 $3,194

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

104 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 6,000 0.835 $5,010.00 $450.00 +9.9%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? Yes 5,349 0.835 $4,466.02 $889.37 +24.9%
Will the Boston Red Sox have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 2,088 0.955 $1,992.77 $201.07 +11.2%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher? No 1,476 0.989 $1,458.67 $211.58 +17.0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season? No 1,133 1.000 $1,132.44 $1.02 +0.1%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? No 5,359 0.195 $1,045.06 $-1,777.58 -63.0%
Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season? Yes 1,206 0.845 $1,018.93 $354.71 +53.4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season? No 904 0.998 $901.35 $-1.11 -0.1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season? No 745 0.998 $742.74 $-0.93 -0.1%
Will Canada participate in Eurovision 2027? Yes 792 0.934 $739.95 $-28.88 -3.8%
Will Carlos Alcaraz Win the Cincinnati Open? No 517 0.991 $512.65 $-3.56 -0.7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 18, 2026? Yes 572 0.845 $483.30 $118.32 +32.4%
Will the Toronto Tempo make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? No 400 0.950 $380.00 $-4.00 -1.0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season? No 375 0.999 $374.64 $0.00 +0.0%
Will North America Win the WSOP Main Event Yes 584 0.605 $353.58 $277.19 +362.9%
Will Europe Win the WSOP Main Event Yes 865 0.395 $341.58 $199.73 +140.8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 17, 2026? Yes 350 0.865 $303.11 $73.52 +32.0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season? No 297 1.000 $296.85 $0.80 +0.3%
Will Uber say "Delivery" 10+ times during earnings call? Yes 215 0.976 $209.80 $-3.12 -1.5%
Will the Seattle Storm make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? No 188 0.973 $183.02 $-3.27 -1.8%
Will Jacy Sheldon have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? No 162 0.979 $158.60 $11.58 +7.9%
Will the Los Angeles Sparks make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? No 147 0.935 $137.44 $4.68 +3.5%
Will Caitlin Clark have the highest points per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? No 132 0.966 $127.19 $8.63 +7.3%
Will Lucas Jumalon Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event? Yes 188 0.605 $113.73 $98.06 +626.0%
Will Junior Caminero hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 497 0.205 $102.09 $99.34 +3609.4%