PnL (30d)

−$35

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$11

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-13.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

36%

42W / 76L · 26 open

Win Return (30d)

40%

57W / 87L

Trades (30d)

144

across 85 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$0.52

avg win $4 · loss $2

Profit Factor

0.69

$77 won / $112 lost

Reward / Risk

1.53

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$23

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	35.6% 42W/76L	85	$310
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/4L	8	$34
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/1L	3	$8
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/3L	2	$23

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

26 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	78	0.570	$44.33	$24.33	+121.7%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	148	0.210	$31.10	$9.10	+41.4%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	91	0.101	$9.14	$4.14	+82.7%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	Yes	103	0.087	$9.04	$3.04	+50.6%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	12	0.515	$6.16	$1.16	+23.2%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026?	No	8	0.755	$6.12	$3.12	+104.1%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	13	0.420	$5.59	$0.59	+11.8%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	200	0.025	$4.91	$-3.09	-38.6%
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	14	0.350	$4.90	$-0.10	-1.9%
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	25	0.185	$4.62	$-0.38	-7.5%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	55	0.075	$4.11	$-2.89	-41.2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	5	0.770	$3.95	$1.95	+97.4%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?	Yes	46	0.080	$3.66	$-5.34	-59.3%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes	26	0.095	$2.46	$-1.54	-38.4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?	Down	7	0.295	$2.19	$0.19	+9.3%
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	No	6	0.335	$1.91	$-0.09	-4.3%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	No	12	0.125	$1.56	$-0.44	-21.9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 5?	Down	14	0.105	$1.50	$-0.50	-25.0%
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	7	0.170	$1.13	$-0.87	-43.3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	237	0.004	$1.06	$-5.93	-84.8%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	No	3	0.345	$1.05	$0.05	+4.5%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	261	0.004	$1.04	$-2.96	-73.9%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	33	0.029	$0.98	$-2.02	-67.3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	146	0.005	$0.73	$-5.27	-87.9%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?	No	4	0.155	$0.58	$-0.42	-42.2%