PnL (30d)

−$3

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$2

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

47%

8W / 9L · 13 open

Win Return (30d)

27%

8W / 22L

Trades (30d)

30

across 10 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$0.36

avg win $2 · loss $2

Profit Factor

0.71

$7 won / $10 lost

Reward / Risk

0.71

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	62.5% 203W/122L	166	$1,841
⚽ Sports	60.0% 3W/2L	6	$11
🎬 Culture	0.0% 0W/3L	1	$15
🏛 Politics	100.0% 1W/0L	1	$1

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	97	0.385	$37.35	$1.45	+4.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	186	0.165	$30.75	$-3.26	-9.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	32	0.785	$25.32	$19.60	+342.6%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	16	1.000	$16.36	$3.17	+24.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	42	0.165	$6.93	$2.10	+43.5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	4	0.835	$3.00	$0.27	+9.9%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	7	0.375	$2.55	$1.53	+150.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	12	0.175	$2.03	$-5.24	-72.1%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	No	2	0.930	$1.45	$0.16	+12.0%
Call of Duty: KOI vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Esports World Cup Group A	Carolina Royal Ravens	3	0.405	$1.24	$-0.02	-1.2%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	6	0.115	$0.69	$-4.72	-87.3%