PnL (30d)

−$1,330

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$2,035

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-5.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

43%

147W / 191L · 352 open

Win Return (30d)

69%

475W / 215L

Trades (30d)

690

across 54 markets · ~13 per market

EV / position

−$40.31

avg win $62 · loss $126

Profit Factor

0.41

$930 won / $2,260 lost

Reward / Risk

0.49

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$111

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	43.5% 147W/191L	54	$36,069
🏛 Politics	80.0% 8W/2L	7	$4,748
🎬 Culture	80.0% 8W/2L	2	$303
💵 Economy	—	1	$2,065

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	5,574	0.835	$4,654.38	$484.68	+11.6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	4,962	0.515	$2,555.58	$490.17	+23.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	1,547	1.000	$1,546.48	$325.74	+26.7%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	1,252	0.775	$970.35	$544.13	+127.7%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	1,325	0.705	$934.22	$158.13	+20.4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	1,128	0.695	$783.99	$104.79	+15.4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	903	0.365	$329.42	$58.66	+21.7%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	356	0.785	$279.71	$55.14	+24.6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	1,056	0.255	$269.30	$-264.56	-49.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	573	0.460	$263.59	$27.83	+11.8%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	169	0.945	$159.33	$4.32	+2.8%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	123	0.895	$109.66	$27.00	+32.7%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	270	0.370	$99.86	$13.54	+15.7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	222	0.265	$58.88	$-7.78	-11.7%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Yes	82	0.245	$20.07	$-2.87	-12.5%
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	476	0.034	$16.20	$-98.91	-85.9%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?	Yes	407	0.037	$15.25	$0.98	+6.9%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	61	0.090	$5.49	$-5.49	-50.0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	237	0.001	$0.12	$-41.10	-99.7%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	Yes	4	0.006	$0.02	$-0.39	-94.6%