PnL (30d)

−$268

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1,131

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

28%

205W / 536L · 22,155 open

Win Return (30d)

55%

12,658W / 10,212L · 26 open

Trades (30d)

22,896

across 176 markets · ~130 per market

EV / position

−$44.63

avg win $39 · loss $128

Profit Factor

0.30

$117 won / $385 lost

Reward / Risk

0.30

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	27.7% 205W/536L	316	$94,154
🏛 Politics	100.0% 9W/0L	118	$11,411
⚽ Sports	—	52	$2,925
🎬 Culture	—	32	$1,333
💵 Economy	—	28	$3,164
₿ Crypto	—	21	$1,054
🤖 Tech	—	13	$2,111
🔬 Science	—	4	$171
🌤 Weather	—	1	$43

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	7,881	0.125	$985.15	$-318.20	-24.4%
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	5,762	0.145	$835.42	$-405.44	-32.7%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	16,558	0.044	$736.84	$-52.21	-6.6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	7,549	0.095	$717.19	$-238.40	-24.9%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,425	0.405	$576.94	$15.16	+2.7%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	3,524	0.147	$519.74	$-214.63	-29.2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	5,321	0.095	$505.52	$-0.85	-0.2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	4,648	0.100	$464.76	$375.61	+421.3%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	1,116	0.405	$451.79	$1.61	+0.4%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	13,049	0.033	$424.11	$179.82	+73.6%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,969	0.209	$412.56	$22.69	+5.8%
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	3,715	0.105	$390.07	$-123.61	-24.1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	17,901	0.021	$383.09	$-68.49	-15.2%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	68,979	0.005	$379.38	$-206.94	-35.3%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	8,844	0.043	$375.85	$49.34	+15.1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	530	0.640	$339.00	$33.30	+10.9%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	8,304	0.040	$327.99	$-14.86	-4.3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	7,797	0.037	$292.39	$-49.82	-14.6%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Yes	2,250	0.120	$270.00	$-99.31	-26.9%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	312	0.865	$269.65	$10.88	+4.2%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	57,882	0.004	$260.47	$-145.75	-35.9%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,442	0.180	$259.60	$-65.94	-20.3%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	6,178	0.042	$256.37	$13.87	+5.7%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	3,407	0.075	$255.51	$-114.21	-30.9%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	19,593	0.013	$254.71	$-17.69	-6.5%