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Trader leaderboard/TBill1

TBill1

0xd52b8dcb4b812c4056faf41164a6f6c73f4c5c72
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$6,563
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$243
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+7.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
17%
262W / 1,319L · 59 open
Win Return (30d)
18%
301W / 1,339L
Trades (30d)
1,640
across 21 markets · ~78 per market
EV / position
+$656.27
avg win $3,701 · loss $1,373
Profit Factor
1.80
$14,803 won / $8,241 lost
Reward / Risk
2.69
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$352
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,863 · all-time $10,009,709

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 52.9% 1,784W/1,591L 87 $452,963
💵 Economy 71.4% 5W/2L 7 $4,536
🏛 Politics 61.9% 13W/8L 7 $1,444
🎬 Culture 61.5% 8W/5L 4 $355
🤖 Tech — 3 $1,568

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50,000 0.790 $39,525.00 $14,525.00 +58.1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50,000 0.209 $10,475.00 $-14,525.00 -58.1%
US recession by end of 2026? No 6,187 0.920 $5,692.33 $336.53 +6.3%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 5,311 0.980 $5,201.96 $37.97 +0.7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4,433 0.615 $2,726.13 $168.70 +6.6%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 2,075 0.850 $1,762.42 $247.68 +16.4%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4,612 0.298 $1,376.82 $104.48 +8.2%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 783 0.865 $677.42 $1.42 +0.2%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 908 0.635 $576.73 $-13.72 -2.3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 562 0.745 $418.42 $47.74 +12.9%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 500 0.823 $411.25 $38.75 +10.4%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 721 0.540 $389.38 $12.57 +3.3%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 336 0.972 $326.55 $14.11 +4.5%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 276 0.962 $265.37 $5.93 +2.3%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4,463 0.035 $153.98 $-5.82 -3.6%
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026? No 71 0.860 $61.17 $1.42 +2.4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No 87 0.695 $60.56 $6.53 +12.1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 577 0.072 $41.87 $-0.82 -1.9%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No 11 0.735 $8.42 $1.32 +18.5%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 307 0.015 $4.44 $-2.26 -33.7%