PnL (30d)

−$734

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$697

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-13.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

38%

18W / 30L · 67 open

Win Return (30d)

24%

28W / 87L

Trades (30d)

115

across 18 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

−$73.45

avg win $91 · loss $183

Profit Factor

0.33

$362 won / $1,097 lost

Reward / Risk

0.50

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$80

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	37.5% 18W/30L	18	$7,026
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/5L	3	$1,575

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

29 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	6,105	0.305	$1,865.23	$-151.31	-7.5%
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	Yes	1,505	0.260	$391.18	$-135.28	-25.7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	23,195	0.015	$336.32	$-407.07	-54.8%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	5,033	0.065	$327.17	$-135.81	-29.3%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	1,073	0.180	$193.11	$-159.89	-45.3%
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	214	0.825	$176.16	$12.00	+7.3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,691	0.080	$135.27	$-79.83	-37.1%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	70,390	0.002	$105.58	$-40.33	-27.6%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	58,973	0.002	$88.46	$-155.33	-63.7%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	129	0.510	$65.90	$54.90	+499.1%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	19,961	0.003	$49.90	$3.93	+8.6%
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	298	0.145	$43.21	$-52.15	-54.7%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	15,759	0.003	$39.40	$-23.64	-37.5%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	217	0.150	$32.66	$-18.34	-36.0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	20,966	0.002	$31.45	$-69.21	-68.8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	1,002	0.019	$19.54	$-36.93	-65.4%
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	92	0.095	$8.71	$-2.29	-20.8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	15	0.165	$2.54	$0.54	+26.8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	9	0.185	$1.68	$0.68	+68.2%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	500	0.003	$1.25	$0.25	+25.0%
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	Yes	4	0.345	$1.23	$0.23	+23.2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	1	0.945	$1.14	$0.14	+13.8%
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Yes	4	0.225	$0.87	$-0.13	-13.5%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	509	0.002	$0.76	$-10.24	-93.1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	2	0.325	$0.69	$-0.31	-30.9%