| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
13,345 |
0.999 |
$13,324.81 |
$5,114.98 |
+62.3% |
| H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
9,857 |
0.940 |
$9,266.00 |
$746.08 |
+8.8% |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
7,727 |
0.997 |
$7,703.37 |
$6,772.59 |
+727.6% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
19,255 |
0.295 |
$5,680.19 |
$-1,541.32 |
-21.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
4,716 |
0.900 |
$4,244.62 |
$1,850.52 |
+77.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
4,964 |
0.785 |
$3,896.57 |
$2,928.91 |
+302.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
3,039 |
1.000 |
$3,037.94 |
$922.10 |
+43.6% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
No |
3,241 |
0.885 |
$2,868.35 |
$988.15 |
+52.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
15,114 |
0.165 |
$2,493.88 |
$575.24 |
+30.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
3,190 |
0.770 |
$2,456.22 |
$1,444.10 |
+142.7% |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
17,294 |
0.140 |
$2,421.20 |
$-768.82 |
-24.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
15,656 |
0.145 |
$2,270.19 |
$-1,710.91 |
-43.0% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
8,362 |
0.234 |
$1,960.92 |
$1,279.69 |
+187.9% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
No |
1,880 |
0.984 |
$1,848.98 |
$68.89 |
+3.9% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
3,547 |
0.515 |
$1,826.64 |
$-125.07 |
-6.4% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
6,266 |
0.290 |
$1,817.13 |
$544.49 |
+42.8% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? |
No |
1,714 |
0.968 |
$1,657.88 |
$41.29 |
+2.6% |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,586 |
0.992 |
$1,573.81 |
$34.90 |
+2.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
1,667 |
0.900 |
$1,500.37 |
$562.15 |
+59.9% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
No |
1,900 |
0.765 |
$1,454.43 |
$-218.44 |
-13.1% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
4,909 |
0.277 |
$1,359.79 |
$1,107.07 |
+438.1% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
7,185 |
0.184 |
$1,325.63 |
$-83.19 |
-5.9% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
5,732 |
0.230 |
$1,318.43 |
$-80.82 |
-5.8% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
3,506 |
0.375 |
$1,314.64 |
$413.40 |
+45.9% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? |
Yes |
15,322 |
0.085 |
$1,302.36 |
$-1,506.63 |
-53.6% |