| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
114,005 |
0.460 |
$52,385.21 |
$12,017.36 |
+29.8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
74,192 |
0.675 |
$50,079.88 |
$4,539.24 |
+10.0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
20,000 |
0.925 |
$18,499.83 |
$1,299.99 |
+7.6% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
253,408 |
0.052 |
$13,303.93 |
$2,875.68 |
+27.6% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House |
Yes |
28,529 |
0.405 |
$11,554.13 |
$1,751.46 |
+17.9% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
227,002 |
0.049 |
$11,123.12 |
$400.21 |
+3.7% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
19,998 |
0.455 |
$9,099.07 |
$-721.95 |
-7.4% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
44,941 |
0.135 |
$6,044.59 |
$426.94 |
+7.6% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
18,092 |
0.259 |
$4,676.85 |
$619.30 |
+15.3% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? |
No |
5,555 |
0.830 |
$4,610.63 |
$-55.55 |
-1.2% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
5,000 |
0.895 |
$4,474.97 |
$924.99 |
+26.1% |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? |
Yes |
4,444 |
0.974 |
$4,326.23 |
$104.43 |
+2.5% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
124,612 |
0.025 |
$3,053.00 |
$715.02 |
+30.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
7,500 |
0.385 |
$2,887.50 |
$-312.48 |
-9.8% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.705 |
$2,819.97 |
$640.00 |
+29.4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2,356 |
0.775 |
$1,825.76 |
$13.12 |
+0.7% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
1,513 |
0.825 |
$1,247.23 |
$3.78 |
+0.3% |
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
Yes |
2,476 |
0.385 |
$953.08 |
$160.91 |
+20.3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? |
No |
918 |
0.987 |
$905.39 |
$28.91 |
+3.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.150 |
$750.00 |
$-100.00 |
-11.8% |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? |
No |
792 |
0.875 |
$692.72 |
$43.54 |
+6.7% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
1,506 |
0.455 |
$685.33 |
$37.66 |
+5.8% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? |
Yes |
557 |
0.982 |
$547.46 |
$3.34 |
+0.6% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
5,060 |
0.022 |
$113.85 |
$7.59 |
+7.1% |
| Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? |
No |
467 |
0.210 |
$98.07 |
$28.02 |
+40.0% |