PnL (30d)

+$260

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$69

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+3.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

95%

20W / 1L · 3 open

Win Return (30d)

92%

22W / 2L

Trades (30d)

24

across 18 markets · ~1 per market

EV / position

+$17.32

avg win $34 · loss $221

Profit Factor

2.17

$481 won / $221 lost

Reward / Risk

0.16

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$13

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	96.8% 60W/2L	65	$24,101
🏛 Politics	14.3% 1W/6L	4	$1,157
🎬 Culture	100.0% 1W/0L	1	$268

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

21 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	677	0.981	$664.37	$43.37	+7.0%
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?	No	713	0.875	$623.81	$-10.69	-1.7%
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	Yes	657	0.870	$571.93	$-47.26	-7.6%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	No	495	0.981	$485.61	$25.01	+5.4%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	No	489	0.875	$428.08	$-35.52	-7.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	432	0.940	$405.70	$4.32	+1.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	443	0.885	$391.80	$-19.92	-4.8%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?	Yes	447	0.850	$380.22	$-44.43	-10.5%
Will PPI YoY be 5.2% in July?	No	424	0.860	$364.83	$-16.97	-4.4%
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	378	0.946	$357.97	$36.33	+11.3%
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	No	481	0.740	$356.19	$-71.90	-16.8%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	449	0.768	$345.03	$-79.98	-18.8%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	No	360	0.930	$335.14	$32.43	+10.7%
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in July?	No	393	0.835	$327.88	$1.96	+0.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	485	0.531	$257.56	$-203.23	-44.1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	No	224	0.710	$158.98	$-33.74	-17.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	109	0.999	$109.06	$3.77	+3.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	327	0.320	$104.59	$-169.96	-61.9%
Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?	Yes	70	0.806	$56.50	$-10.70	-15.9%
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	Yes	37	0.928	$34.35	$-0.46	-1.3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	1	0.981	$1.02	$0.02	+1.9%