PnL (30d)

−$31

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$48

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-8.0%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

32%

6W / 13L · 24 open

Win Return (30d)

33%

14W / 28L · 1 open

Trades (30d)

43

across 19 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$4.46

avg win $9 · loss $10

Profit Factor

0.35

$17 won / $48 lost

Reward / Risk

0.89

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$10

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	31.6% 6W/13L	19	$579
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/1L	6	$111
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/1L	3	$129

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	1,052	0.073	$76.76	$4.58	+6.3%
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	Yes	211	0.295	$62.18	$-7.49	-10.7%
US x China Military clash before 2027?	Yes	1,173	0.044	$51.62	$-11.89	-18.7%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	132	0.285	$37.68	$-12.32	-24.6%
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Yes	109	0.295	$32.24	$-17.76	-35.5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	57	0.255	$14.61	$-5.29	-26.6%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	256	0.055	$14.10	$-11.90	-45.8%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	29	0.250	$7.20	$2.05	+39.7%
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	15	0.255	$3.85	$-0.63	-14.0%
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	44	0.085	$3.73	$0.66	+21.4%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?	Yes	154	0.022	$3.39	$-4.11	-54.8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	106	0.031	$3.27	$-10.73	-76.6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	18	0.145	$2.64	$-3.61	-57.8%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	214	0.009	$2.04	$-0.96	-32.1%
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	28	0.065	$1.79	$-1.02	-36.3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	8	0.155	$1.30	$-0.96	-42.4%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	Yes	7	0.065	$0.46	$-0.54	-53.6%
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	Yes	5	0.077	$0.39	$0.07	+20.9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1	0.345	$0.35	$-0.07	-15.9%
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	5	0.049	$0.23	$-0.32	-58.1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	1	0.080	$0.08	$-0.17	-68.2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	1	0.037	$0.04	$-0.05	-56.9%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	1	0.033	$0.03	$-0.08	-71.3%