| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? |
No |
21,953 |
0.825 |
$18,111.39 |
$-870.88 |
-4.6% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
Yes |
21,568 |
0.820 |
$17,685.74 |
$3,835.02 |
+27.7% |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? |
No |
19,299 |
0.875 |
$16,886.81 |
$1,865.08 |
+12.4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? |
No |
14,766 |
0.915 |
$13,511.02 |
$3,220.92 |
+31.3% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
12,392 |
0.935 |
$11,586.85 |
$2,207.13 |
+23.5% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? |
Yes |
10,209 |
0.982 |
$10,025.12 |
$262.54 |
+2.7% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
Yes |
10,430 |
0.886 |
$9,246.16 |
$409.86 |
+4.6% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
8,160 |
0.852 |
$6,952.62 |
$130.96 |
+1.9% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? |
No |
7,304 |
0.920 |
$6,719.48 |
$489.92 |
+7.9% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
6,921 |
0.940 |
$6,506.18 |
$177.98 |
+2.8% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? |
No |
7,068 |
0.885 |
$6,255.48 |
$636.14 |
+11.3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
No |
6,281 |
0.964 |
$6,051.85 |
$366.06 |
+6.4% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
No |
5,814 |
0.935 |
$5,436.50 |
$420.72 |
+8.4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? |
No |
6,043 |
0.845 |
$5,105.94 |
$1,165.25 |
+29.6% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
4,430 |
0.905 |
$4,009.04 |
$318.67 |
+8.6% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? |
No |
4,000 |
0.985 |
$3,940.00 |
$68.00 |
+1.8% |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? |
No |
4,518 |
0.855 |
$3,862.71 |
$86.31 |
+2.3% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
No |
3,355 |
0.989 |
$3,316.42 |
$78.13 |
+2.4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
2,900 |
0.981 |
$2,843.45 |
$127.56 |
+4.7% |
| Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.865 |
$2,595.00 |
$-15.00 |
-0.6% |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? |
No |
2,591 |
0.875 |
$2,267.40 |
$87.82 |
+4.0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2,205 |
0.765 |
$1,687.01 |
$-34.97 |
-2.0% |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? |
No |
1,663 |
0.933 |
$1,552.60 |
$20.87 |
+1.4% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? |
Yes |
1,510 |
0.986 |
$1,489.06 |
$17.68 |
+1.2% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? |
No |
1,472 |
0.962 |
$1,415.19 |
$31.64 |
+2.3% |