| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
154 |
0.705 |
$108.83 |
$12.83 |
+13.4% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
18 |
0.955 |
$17.45 |
$0.45 |
+2.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
18 |
0.835 |
$15.19 |
$-0.81 |
-5.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
59 |
0.215 |
$12.71 |
$-13.26 |
-51.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
12 |
0.900 |
$11.12 |
$5.12 |
+85.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
12 |
0.825 |
$9.84 |
$4.26 |
+76.3% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
10 |
0.981 |
$9.31 |
$0.31 |
+3.5% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
9 |
0.976 |
$9.19 |
$0.19 |
+2.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
28 |
0.305 |
$8.54 |
$1.54 |
+22.0% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
18 |
0.300 |
$5.30 |
$-5.70 |
-51.8% |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.975 |
$5.24 |
$0.24 |
+4.9% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
4 |
0.981 |
$4.13 |
$0.13 |
+3.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
3 |
0.976 |
$3.04 |
$0.04 |
+1.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2 |
0.960 |
$2.20 |
$0.20 |
+9.9% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? |
No |
2 |
0.985 |
$2.05 |
$0.05 |
+2.4% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2 |
0.977 |
$2.00 |
$-0.00 |
-0.1% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
5 |
0.356 |
$1.83 |
$-0.17 |
-8.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
1 |
0.986 |
$1.37 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
Yes |
9 |
0.125 |
$1.14 |
$-1.46 |
-56.1% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
1 |
0.945 |
$1.05 |
$0.05 |
+5.0% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31? |
No |
1 |
0.991 |
$1.04 |
$0.04 |
+3.8% |
| Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
1 |
0.986 |
$1.02 |
$0.02 |
+1.6% |
| Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
1 |
0.981 |
$1.01 |
$0.01 |
+1.2% |
| Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? |
No |
1 |
0.915 |
$0.99 |
$-0.01 |
-0.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
4 |
0.145 |
$0.52 |
$-0.48 |
-48.2% |