PnL (30d)

−$3

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$2

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-26.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

43%

6W / 8L · 8 open

Win Return (30d)

55%

12W / 10L

Trades (30d)

22

across 12 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$0.32

avg win $1 · loss $2

Profit Factor

0.64

$5 won / $8 lost

Reward / Risk

0.51

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	42.9% 6W/8L	12	$27
🏛 Politics	—	1	$11

Open positions

9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	60	0.615	$36.98	$-12.51	-25.3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	42	0.640	$26.86	$8.68	+47.8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	49	0.455	$22.13	$5.97	+37.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	9	0.835	$7.53	$1.37	+22.3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	36	0.155	$5.60	$-5.52	-49.6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	2	0.745	$1.55	$0.41	+36.1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	13	0.085	$1.09	$-1.93	-63.9%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1	0.700	$0.85	$-0.16	-15.7%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1	0.505	$0.71	$-0.30	-29.9%